We have a battle to save lives. The US and UK are not doing well, while S.Korea seems to be winning the battle against the Covid-19 virus. Today is April 5th, 2020. This is an update from two days ago, with Covid-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University, The NYT, and other sources. I have been publishing my efforts at the pandemic and asking all to help join in #FlatteningTheCurve for two weeks now. Today I present data showing similar characteristics in cumulative deaths in the UK and the US, but quite different characteristics in S. Korea.
The y-axis of the upper chart is plotted on a linear scale and the lower chart is plotted on a log scale. Cumulative deaths in selected countries are plotted with the x-axis being Days Since the 10th Death in the Country. The US deaths (heavy red line) initially increased slower than those in the UK (heavy black line) as seen in the upper chart. The rates of increase have been similar (indicated by the slopes of the red and black lines in the lower chart.
South Korea Is Winning
South Korea, with a similar sized population to the UK is shown with the deep blue lines with triangles. S.Korea is barely visible on the upper chart with only 183 deaths after 40 days.
Is it that S.Korea has better medical technology, or something else? Do they have better discipline enabling much more effective self-isolation and social distancing, thereby reducing the spread of the virus? Is it that they have become accustomed to wearing face masks in public?
C-19 World and US Growth Charts
The above three charts are included to be consistent with my posts for the last two weeks. The drop in the deaths per day for the last two days is encouraging, but should not be interpreted as the US having reached a turning point. Cities like New Orleans may start to show rapid increases in their numbers of cases and deaths, as they were slow to shut down and traditionally have crowded streets. All states that were slow to shut down may experience growth in Covid-19 cases over the next few weeks. Hospitals may become overloaded all across the US.
Until you can be sure you’ve had no symptoms 14 days from any interactions with the last person who might have been sick … you can’t be sure you aren’t part of an infection chain.
Some experts suggest that life can “return to normal” only when 60%–80% of the population is resistant to Covid-19, either because they’ve had it and developed immunity or because of a vaccine.
Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.