COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter?

Today is March 27th, 2020. This is an update from yesterday with Covid-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University and other sources. The number of cases and the number of deaths in the US are still increasing faster than the predictions I made on March 22nd (If We Do Nothing). Although we are doing things in the US, we are still not doing them fast enough, as the charts below illustrate.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US rising faster than my March 22 predictions. Unless we do more to slow the spread there will be more than 30,000 deaths in the US by Easter.

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. I have added a trendline and equation for the recorded deaths/day. The trendline is of low reliability, but clearly shows actual cases/day are occurring faster than my predictions. By the end of next week (April 4th, 2020) the US will be experiencing well over 1,000 deaths/day unless we change the shape of the curve.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.