COVID-19: 10,000 US Dead by Easter?

Today is March 24th, 2020. Two days ago I wrote a post “COVID-19: If We Do Nothing“. In the last two days I have tracked numbers as the pandemic growth continues. I have added four days of recorded data to the limited statistics I was using from Johns Hopkins, Harvard and the CDC. A chart of my growth projections and the latest actual data is shown below for the USA.

By Saturday April 11th (Easter Weekend) the data I used 2 days ago projects 9,688 US deaths from Covid-19. However, the last 4 days of data is showing a faster rising trend of numbers of deaths and numbers of recorded cases in the US. Tonight, President Trump has announced unprecedented measures to try an reduce the number of deaths.

In the rest of the world (outside China, where the pandemic is under control) the last 4 days of data is seen to follow the predictions made using the JHU data a couple of days ago, as shown below.

By Easter Weekend the extrapolated data predicts 310,000 deaths worldwide (not including 3,200 in China) and 6.7 million recorded cases. The last 4 days of recorded data is following the prediction.

The projected growth is based on data from March 1st, where developed countries became rapidly infected, a week or so ahead of the US. They all now wish they had acted sooner. The US has been slow to act. However, we can all now do our part to self-isolate unless our work demands our brave service outside our homes.

Bil Stewart, STA CEO & Founder.