Today is March 29th, 2020. This is an update from yesterday with Covid-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University and other sources. The number of cases and the number of deaths in the US are still increasing faster than the predictions I made on March 22nd (If We Do Nothing). Although we are doing things in the US, we are still not doing them fast enough, as the charts below illustrate.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China which are now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22.

TODAY THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THAT THE NUMBER OF US DEATHS TODAY (by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) DOES NOT SHOW A LARGE INCREASE FROM THE NUMBER OF DEATHS YESTERDAY (about 440 each day).

EVEN AFTER THE CURVES HAVE PEAKED IN NEW YORK, EXPECT THAT THE EXPONENTIAL NUMBER OF RECORDED CASES AND DEATHS WILL COME TO EVERY CITY IN THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.