We have a battle to save lives. The US and UK are not doing well, while S.Korea seems to be winning the battle against the Covid-19 virus. Today is April 5th, 2020. This is an update from two days ago, with Covid-19 statistics from Johns Hopkins University, The NYT, and other sources. I have been publishing my efforts at the pandemic and asking all to help join in #FlatteningTheCurve for two weeks now. Today I present data showing similar characteristics in cumulative deaths in the UK and the US, but quite different characteristics in S. Korea.

The y-axis of the upper chart is plotted on a linear scale and the lower chart is plotted on a log scale. Cumulative deaths in selected countries are plotted with the x-axis being Days Since the 10th Death in the Country. The US deaths (heavy red line) initially increased slower than those in the UK (heavy black line) as seen in the upper chart. The rates of increase have been similar (indicated by the slopes of the red and black lines in the lower chart.

South Korea Is Winning

South Korea, with a similar sized population to the UK is shown with the deep blue lines with triangles. S.Korea is barely visible on the upper chart with only 183 deaths after 40 days.

Is it that S.Korea has better medical technology, or something else? Do they have better discipline enabling much more effective self-isolation and social distancing, thereby reducing the spread of the virus? Is it that they have become accustomed to wearing face masks in public?

C-19 World and US Growth Charts

The above three charts are included to be consistent with my posts for the last two weeks. The drop in the deaths per day for the last two days is encouraging, but should not be interpreted as the US having reached a turning point. Cities like New Orleans may start to show rapid increases in their numbers of cases and deaths, as they were slow to shut down and traditionally have crowded streets. All states that were slow to shut down may experience growth in Covid-19 cases over the next few weeks. Hospitals may become overloaded all across the US.

Until you can be sure you’ve had no symptoms 14 days from any interactions with the last person who might have been sick … you can’t be sure you aren’t part of an infection chain.

Some experts suggest that life can “return to normal” only when 60%–80% of the population is resistant to Covid-19, either because they’ve had it and developed immunity or because of a vaccine.

Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post US, UK vs S.Korea, Technology, Discipline, Face Masks appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and recorded cases outside China.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day. The number of US deaths today (by 8:00 pm CST according to JHU) was 1,486. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

UNPRECEDENTED MEASURES BY THE US PRESIDENT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR ALL WHO DO NOT NEED TO LEAVE HOME, TO STAY HOME. YOUR CITY MAY SEEM SAFE TODAY, WITH FEW COVID-19 CASES, BUT EXPECT THE NEW YORK SCENARIO, UNLESS WE ARE ALL PRO-ACTIVE.

HOSPITALS MAY BECOME OVERLOADED ALL ACROSS THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 6 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and recorded cases outside China.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day. The number of US deaths today and yesterday ( by 8:00 pm CST according to JHU) exceeded 1000. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

UNPRECEDENTED MEASURES BY THE US PRESIDENT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR ALL WHO DO NOT NEED TO LEAVE HOME, TO STAY HOME. YOUR CITY MAY SEEM SAFE TODAY WITH FEW COVID-19 CASES, BUT EXPECT THE NEW YORK SCENARIO, UNLESS WE ARE ALL PRO-ACTIVE.

HOSPITALS MAY BECOME OVERLOADED ALL ACROSS THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 5 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and recorded cases outside China.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day. The number of US deaths today ( by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) is 895, compared to 511 yesterday. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

THE NEW YORK SCENARIO OF MANY HUNDREDS OF DEATHS/DAY WILL COME TO EVERY BIG CITY IN THE US UNLESS WE DO MORE.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 4 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China which are now clearly falling below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. The number of US deaths today ( by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) has risen to 511, from the approximately 440 on each of the previous two days. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

EVEN AFTER THE CURVES HAVE PEAKED IN NEW YORK, EXPECT THAT THE NEW YORK SCENARIO OF EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING NUMBERS OF RECORDED CASES AND DEATHS WILL COME TO EVERY BIG CITY IN THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

Explanation of Formulae Used for Projections

For my initial estimates of Covid-19 growth from 03/23, I took recorded cases (not deaths) outside China, for the 3 weeks before March 22nd, when many countries were in their early-to-middle exponential Covid-19 growth rates. I fitted a simple equation: y = y0 + A exp(x/t) to these data.

I then predicted recorded cases for outside China and for the US. The US projected recorded cases are simply the world cases factored by (recorded US cases on 03/21)/(recorded cases outside China on 03/21).

The projected deaths outside China are made equal to (recorded cases outside China on 03/21)/(deaths outside China on 03/21). The US projected deaths are set to the ratio of (recorded US cases on 03/21)/(recorded US deaths on 03/21).

There are many deficiencies in the method, but I wanted an estimating tool that I understood. It is not yet clear to me where we are going, So much depends on slowing the spread by isolation, which has not been implemented well in the US. The S. Korea isolation and tracing/tracking system seems to have been working very well, however. See, for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 3 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China which are now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22.

TODAY THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THAT THE NUMBER OF US DEATHS TODAY (by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) DOES NOT SHOW A LARGE INCREASE FROM THE NUMBER OF DEATHS YESTERDAY (about 440 each day).

EVEN AFTER THE CURVES HAVE PEAKED IN NEW YORK, EXPECT THAT THE EXPONENTIAL NUMBER OF RECORDED CASES AND DEATHS WILL COME TO EVERY CITY IN THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 2 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths are definitely rising faster than my March 22 predictions. Unless we do more to slow the spread there will be more than 30,000 deaths in the US by Easter.

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. I have added a trendline and equation for the recorded deaths/day. The trendline is of low reliability, but clearly shows actual deaths/day are occurring faster than my predictions.

IF THE TREND CONTINUES, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (April 4th, 2020) THE US WILL BE EXPERIENCING 1,400 DEATHS/DAY.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

Also check out the useful data presented by Igor Prislin.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 1 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US rising faster than my March 22 predictions. Unless we do more to slow the spread there will be more than 30,000 deaths in the US by Easter.

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. I have added a trendline and equation for the recorded deaths/day. The trendline is of low reliability, but clearly shows actual cases/day are occurring faster than my predictions. By the end of next week (April 4th, 2020) the US will be experiencing well over 1,000 deaths/day unless we change the shape of the curve.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US rising faster than my March 22 predictions. Unless we do more to slow the spread there will be many more than 10,000 deaths in the US by Easter.

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China pretty well following my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. I have added a trendline and equation for the recorded deaths/day. The trendline is of low reliability, but clearly shows actual cases/day are occurring faster than my predictions.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 10,000 US Dead by Easter, Update 2 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The US recorded data is indicating higher numbers of deaths (>10,000) and cases in the US by Easter. The World recorded data is on track for 310,000 deaths by Easter.

Most countries, like the US, are still on the exponential part of the pandemic growth curve. Counter measure in China and Korea have got them past the peak of this curve, as shown below (data from JHU).

We can all play our part and get our countries past the peak in the curve. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 10,000 US Dead By Easter, Update 1 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.