The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and recorded cases outside China.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day. The number of US deaths today ( by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) is 895, compared to 511 yesterday. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

THE NEW YORK SCENARIO OF MANY HUNDREDS OF DEATHS/DAY WILL COME TO EVERY BIG CITY IN THE US UNLESS WE DO MORE.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 4 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths (red lines) have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China which are now clearly falling below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. The number of US deaths today ( by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) has risen to 511, from the approximately 440 on each of the previous two days. The US is not doing enough to “flatten the curve”.

EVEN AFTER THE CURVES HAVE PEAKED IN NEW YORK, EXPECT THAT THE NEW YORK SCENARIO OF EXPONENTIALLY INCREASING NUMBERS OF RECORDED CASES AND DEATHS WILL COME TO EVERY BIG CITY IN THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

Explanation of Formulae Used for Projections

For my initial estimates of Covid-19 growth from 03/23, I took recorded cases (not deaths) outside China, for the 3 weeks before March 22nd, when many countries were in their early-to-middle exponential Covid-19 growth rates. I fitted a simple equation: y = y0 + A exp(x/t) to these data.

I then predicted recorded cases for outside China and for the US. The US projected recorded cases are simply the world cases factored by (recorded US cases on 03/21)/(recorded cases outside China on 03/21).

The projected deaths outside China are made equal to (recorded cases outside China on 03/21)/(deaths outside China on 03/21). The US projected deaths are set to the ratio of (recorded US cases on 03/21)/(recorded US deaths on 03/21).

There are many deficiencies in the method, but I wanted an estimating tool that I understood. It is not yet clear to me where we are going, So much depends on slowing the spread by isolation, which has not been implemented well in the US. The S. Korea isolation and tracing/tracking system seems to have been working very well, however. See, for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 3 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths have been rising faster than my March 22 predictions. 

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China which are now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22.

TODAY THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE IN THAT THE NUMBER OF US DEATHS TODAY (by 7:00 pm CST according to JHU) DOES NOT SHOW A LARGE INCREASE FROM THE NUMBER OF DEATHS YESTERDAY (about 440 each day).

EVEN AFTER THE CURVES HAVE PEAKED IN NEW YORK, EXPECT THAT THE EXPONENTIAL NUMBER OF RECORDED CASES AND DEATHS WILL COME TO EVERY CITY IN THE US.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 2 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.

The upper chart shows recorded deaths and cases in the US. Deaths are definitely rising faster than my March 22 predictions. Unless we do more to slow the spread there will be more than 30,000 deaths in the US by Easter.

The center chart shows recorded deaths and cases outside China now falling slightly below my March 22 predictions for 310,000 deaths worldwide by Easter.

The lower chart (which is linear, not logarithmic, like the upper two) shows recorded US deaths/day and cases/day plotted with my predictions from March 22. I have added a trendline and equation for the recorded deaths/day. The trendline is of low reliability, but clearly shows actual deaths/day are occurring faster than my predictions.

IF THE TREND CONTINUES, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (April 4th, 2020) THE US WILL BE EXPERIENCING 1,400 DEATHS/DAY.

I urge everyone to help change the shape of these curves. Stay at home if your job is not critical to your country’s recovery. Thank God for the brave men and women who must go out to keep their nations safe and supplied.

Also check out the useful data presented by Igor Prislin.

The post COVID-19: 30,000 US Dead by Easter? Update 1 appeared first on Stewart Technology Associates.